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Strategy of Decision-Making
How Reflexivity, Fallibility, and the Human Uncertainty Principle Shape Decision-Making
Grace Cheng
March 09, 2025
Hope you have a fabulous week!
I just returned from Singapore after chairing one of my favourite global AI in marketing events—packed with valuable insights and key takeaways. More case studies and insights will be shared in the upcoming series, so stay tuned!
Singapore was incredibly warm—felt like an entire year’s worth of sunshine and heat compared to the UK, where I’m based!
Hope you have some plans for a trip to relax with your family this upcoming spring!
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Strategically grow your business with result-driven AI strategies, AI adoption, and a strategic roadmap for growth and transformation.
Maximise leadership impact with AI-driven strategies and decision-making—navigate growth with an accountability partner outside your workspace, gaining confidence and support.
Navigate career pivots and AI adoption with confidence—without fear or anxiety.
Enhance decision-making in business, career, and life through a personalised approach and support.
How Reflexivity, Fallibility, and the Human Uncertainty Principle shape decision-making
Strategic decision-making in AI strategy for driving value and efficiency
Strategy of Decision Making
I once asked some of my favourite leaders in my network:
“How do I utilise my passion for cross-domain knowledge and experience to help me grow in business and career in a specific vertical that I’m in or planning to transition to?”
What about you? What do you think?
Cross-domain knowledge and a lifelong passion for more than one domain can greatly foster true creativity and enhance your capability for effective decision-making.
Whether you’re pivoting in your career, growing your business, or building a product/service, creativity is still lacking in society—even with AI and technology advancements.
Although my professional background is in tech, my studies in high school and university mainly focused on literature, language, human sociology, and international relations, where I did extensive research in these domains.
I then discovered a deep interest in mind mapping exercises, which I have practiced almost every week since high school until today—mapping ideas, keywords, concepts, and exploring their relationships and connections.
Cross-domain knowledge exploration, reading, and connecting insights—a.k.a. the dots—across industries is what I’m truly passionate about. I explore fields like economy, finance, human sociology, science, biology, art, and history (particularly ancient Asian, Greek, Roman, and world history).
Yes, it might sound unconventional, but I love how these domains and dimensions come together, creating a network of connections and relationships.
If you recognise the patterns behind them, you’ll gain confidence in your decision-making.
One small concept of connections I’d love to share in this email is strategic decision-making inspired by fallibility, reflexivity, and the human uncertainty principle.
One of which comes from investment world, and one of them is George Soros' principles.
These principles influence the way we:
Make smarter decisions
Grow businesses more effectively
Pivot successfully
George Soros is an American investor and philanthropist. If you experienced the 1998 financial crisis, you probably would never forget him.
I have extensively read about his principles, articles, and theories—alongside my other favourite legends, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger.
I have been studying investment and microeconomics since my university days, and it was during that time that I realised career growth and decision-making in business are not linear.
George Soros, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger reshaped my investment approach, which has also given me the flexibility to pursue my passions today, including walking away from a 9–5, founding AI Strategy League, and writing—backed by my cross-industry passion.
Even if you don’t work in investment, having strong commercial acumen, human sentiment awareness, and investment principles can add great value in facilitating your decision-making, growing a business, and advancing your career.
Key Concepts from George Soros
Reflexivity Principle
Fallibility and the Human Uncertainty Principle
1. Reflexivity Principle: The Observer Shapes the Observed
The reflexivity principle asserts that financial markets and social systems are inherently complex because the observer (us) is also a participant in the system.
Our beliefs, predictions, and actions feed back into the system itself, altering the very reality we seek to understand.
The reflexivity principle asserts that financial markets and social systems are inherently complex because the observer (us) is also a participant in the system.
Key Takeaways in Decision Making:
Soros’ principles help me add more thorough thinking when crafting AI strategies for my peers and clients:
Uncertainty is inevitable because we shape the very systems we participate in.
AI doesn’t eliminate uncertainty—but it equips us with better tools to navigate it.
Make one decision today—that surprisingly builds trust. There are loads of decisions to make upfront. Don’t worry or fear arguments and decisions for tomorrow, Generative AI keeps evolving, and change is constant.
In business and career growth, our beliefs and strategic decisions don’t just respond to reality—they help shape it. Understanding this feedback loop is crucial when navigating uncertainty, influencing markets, and positioning ourselves for success.
2. Fallibility and the Human Uncertainty Principle: The Limits of Rationality
Soros also argues that humans are inherently fallible—our understanding of reality is always imperfect, biased, or incomplete.
Unlike physics, where fixed laws govern the world, economics and business operate in dynamic, uncertain environments where human perception plays a direct role in shaping outcomes.
Fallibility and the Human Uncertainty Principle: The Limits of Rationality
This human uncertainty principle suggests that:
Decisions are never fully rational or optimal because they are based on incomplete or biased information.
Markets and social systems are unpredictable because our beliefs and actions constantly reshape them.
The illusion of control—assuming we can perfectly forecast trends—often leads to overconfidence or costly mistakes.
Key Takeaways in Growth
Success in business and career growth isn’t about eliminating uncertainty—it’s about embracing it, adapting, and iterating based on new information.
Recognising our own cognitive biases and being flexible with strategies reduces the risk of self-imposed limitations.
Interested in learning more about how to strategically grow your business? We invite you to share your interest via: submit your interest.
Takeaways on Strategy in Decision-Making
1. Perception Shapes Reality
Learning to recognise patterns and connect the dots has helped me shape my perspectives and support my clients in better understanding their strengths and limitations—while encouraging them to be open enough to make decisions and explore themselves throughout their growth journey in business and careers.
If you believe you can build a successful business, that belief influences your actions, which in turn shapes outcomes. Just like in financial markets, your conviction attracts clients, investors, and opportunities.
Even outside financial markets, in business and career pivots, this principle holds true.
2. Self-Fulfilling or Self-Defeating Prophecies
Your mindset and positioning determine whether a venture succeeds or fails. Hesitation, doubt, or negative assumptions can undermine your own success.
3. Iterate and Adapt to Uncertainty
Instead of chasing "perfect" strategies, embrace uncertainty by testing, learning, and adjusting based on real-world feedback—this is where AI and data-driven decision-making can be leveraged effectively.
4. The Market Reacts to You
Just as financial markets respond to traders' beliefs, the business world reacts to innovators who bring fresh perspectives and bold actions.
If you differentiate yourself, you influence how the market perceives and values you.
Success in business and career growth isn’t about eliminating uncertainty—it’s about embracing it, adapting, and iterating based on new information.
Recognising our own cognitive biases and being flexible with strategies reduces the risk of self-imposed limitations.
5. AI Reduces fallibility but Might not be able to eliminate It
AI can analyse vast datasets, detect patterns, and predict trends more effectively than human intuition alone.
Combine AI-driven insights with human intuition—using AI as an enhancement tool, not a replacement for judgment.
6. AI Enhances Reflexivity—But Reflexivity Still Exists
If AI predicts that a certain stock or market trend will rise, and enough people believe in that prediction, they take action that makes the prediction come true.
AI models influence the decisions of millions—but these collective decisions feed back into the system, altering the future in unpredictable ways.
Solution: Recognise that AI predictions aren’t fixed laws—they are influenced by human reaction and behaviour.
Final Thoughts
AI serves as a decision amplifier, not a decision maker—enhancing our ability to analyse data, recognise patterns, and make informed choices, but ultimately, the human element remains crucial.
The Reflexivity Principle shows that our beliefs influence reality, making decision-making both complex and impactful.
The Human Uncertainty Principle reminds us that rational decision-making is always limited, but embracing adaptability and iteration leads to better outcomes.
AI enhances our ability to navigate uncertainty but does not replace human intuition, creativity, and strategic thinking.
Your thoughts?
If you understand these principles, you can make smarter business and career decisions, knowing that uncertainty isn’t an obstacle—it’s part of the game.
How do you feel about today’s discussion on strategic decision-making inspired by cross-domain insights? I’d love to hear your thoughts!
For those interested in support—if any of the points below resonate with you, feel free to contact us: submit your interest, or hit reply and share your thoughts:
Strategically grow your business with result-driven AI strategies, AI adoption, and a strategic roadmap for growth and transformation.
Maximise leadership impact with AI-driven strategies and decision-making—navigate growth with an accountability partner outside your workspace, gaining confidence and support.
Navigate career pivots and AI adoption with confidence—without fear or anxiety.
Enhance decision-making in business, career, and life through a personalised approach and support. We’re exploring feedback for an initial product idea—helping leaders make better decisions backed by data, scientific models, and cross-domain insights (integrating culture, human sociology, and beyond).
Appreciate your support in advance!
Stay tuned,
Grace & AI Strategy League
